Washington: a consensus is building in the US intelligence community that six months of conflict have improved Iran's strategic position in the Persian Gulf region and that the country is more confident in its abilities and security now than it was before the war began in February of this year.
This is according to a report by the New York Times that referenced current and former intelligence officials. "“Iran has grown more confident in its ability to attack targets in the Middle East and appears determined to continue the conflict for months to frustrate the United States," says the report.
Intelligence assessments also indicate that Iran is unlikely to make a deal if the conflict continues in its current stalemate.
Iran’s military calculations appear to be guided by its growing missile and drone capacities and by its understanding of how to use the Strait of Hormuz as strategic leverage. The strait carried roughly 20 percent of the world’s oil before the war.
Representative Jason Crow, a Colorado Democrat and member of the House Intelligence Committee, described the Iranian leadership as increasingly confident. “Iranians are feeling pretty bullish about their position,” he said.
The intelligence community long warned that Iran would strangle global oil supplies via the Hormuz Strait if it was attacked, a fact that led previous US administrations to take a cautious stance vis a vis a kinetic conflict in the region. The war has been largely quiescent in recent weeks with occasional flare ups but there is no indication that either side intends to back down and in fact intelligence reports indicate that Iran might attempt to up the ante with more and deadlier strikes.
“The new exchanges have been limited so far. But the intelligence reports, according to people who have read them, suggest that Iran’s hardline government might be contemplating a significant escalation,” the Times reported.
