Paris: The year 2026 is likely to become the second hottest year on record, with global temperatures almost certain to exceed 1.5°C above pre industrial levels, according to the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service.
In its latest climate bulletin released on Friday, Copernicus said there was an approximately 80 per cent probability that 2026 would rank as the second warmest year, while a 20 per cent possibility remained that it could match or surpass 2024, currently the hottest year recorded.
The agency forecasts that the global average temperature for 2026 will be between 1.56°C and 1.61°C above the 1850 1900 pre industrial baseline.
If confirmed, 2026 would become the second calendar year to exceed the 1.5°C threshold after 2024.
October becomes hottest on record
Copernicus reported that October 2026 was the warmest October ever recorded, with the global average surface air temperature reaching 15.35°C.
This was 1.75°C above pre industrial levels and 0.90°C higher than the 1992 to 2020 average, marking the third consecutive month in which global temperatures exceeded the 1.5°C threshold.
Sea surface temperatures also reached record levels for October, averaging 20.95°C across oceans outside the polar regions.
Scientists attributed the exceptional heat to the combined effects of human induced climate change and an unusually strong El Niño weather pattern.
El Niño is a natural climate phenomenon associated with warming in the tropical Pacific Ocean, which can temporarily increase global temperatures and disrupt weather patterns.
The current event intensified considerably, adding further warming to a climate already affected by greenhouse gas emissions.
Four year average could exceed Paris climate threshold
Copernicus also warned that average global warming over the four years from 2023 to 2026 is expected to exceed 1.5°C above pre industrial levels.
The Paris Agreement aims to limit long term global temperature increases to well below 2°C, while pursuing efforts to restrict warming to 1.5°C.
Although exceeding 1.5°C during an individual year does not itself mean the Paris Agreement's long term threshold was formally breached, sustained warming over several years reflects the increasing difficulty of meeting that objective.
The findings come ahead of the COP31 United Nations climate summit, scheduled to begin in Türkiye on November 9.
Negotiators are expected to discuss emissions reductions, climate adaptation and financial support for countries facing increasingly severe climate impacts.
The latest assessment adds urgency to these negotiations, particularly for climate vulnerable countries facing floods, droughts and extreme heat.
With two months remaining in 2026, Copernicus expects global temperatures to remain exceptionally high, reinforcing concerns about the accelerating pace of global warming.
