Brussels: An intensifying El Nino could help make 2026 the hottest year on record, the director of the European Union’s (EU) Copernicus Climate Change Service said on Monday, after temperatures in a key Pacific monitoring region reached a new high.
Sea surface temperatures in the Nino3.4 region reached 29.70 degrees Celsius in September, exceeding peaks recorded during the strong El Nino events of 1982/1983, 1997/1998 and 2015/2016, Copernicus said.
Director Carlo Buontempo told that the current event was exceptional, but it remained too early to determine whether it was the strongest ever observed.
The distinction matters because climate change has raised ocean temperatures, making direct comparisons with earlier El Nino episodes more difficult.
Copernicus said a new index accounting for warming across tropical oceans indicated that the current event had not yet surpassed previous ones in strength. Japan’s weather agency, using a different assessment, said on Friday that conditions had reached their strongest recorded intensity.
El Nino is the warming phase of a natural Pacific climate cycle. It can alter weather patterns, increase drought and flooding risks and add to warming caused by human activity.
The current episode emerged in June and is expected to peak later this year.
Global average sea surface temperatures reached 21.05 degrees Celsius in September, surpassing the previous September record of 20.92 degrees in 2023, Copernicus said.
The world also recorded its second hottest September for surface air temperatures, averaging 16.27 degrees Celsius.
Buontempo said historical patterns suggested that a record hot 2026 could be followed by another record in 2027. El Nino can raise global temperatures further in the year after its peak as ocean heat is released into the atmosphere.
